The National Retail Federation upgraded its 2016 retail sales projections. Originally, the organization expected 3.1 percent growth over last year; now it predicts 3.4 percent.

Increased consumer spending as well as improvements to the housing market, job growth and high wages spurred the change, said Matthew Shay, president/CEO of the NRF. “Retail sales so far this year were solid, growing at a pace of nearly 4 percent, which helped get the year off to a good start,” he said.

Uncertainty surrounding the upcoming presidential election, the rising dollar and global slowdown factored into the estimate, but favorable weather patterns that will help move winter merchandise support NRF’s outlook, said Jack Kleinhenz, NRF’s chief economist.