hat a difference a year makes. At the start of the 2001 season, aboveground-pool retailers nationwide had their stores stocked, with many expecting a 10 or 20 percent increase in sales from the year before. But life threw out a few surprises, including poor weather and a shaky economy, both of which weakened sales and left stores with unsold inventory. “Many of us went into the year with unreasonable expectations,” says Craig Lowery, general manager of Blue Dolphin Pools in Decatur, Ala. “But good times don’t continue with every year.”

Lowery was one of the luckier ones. His company’s aboveground-pool sales increased by 10 percent in 2001, which he says made for a good, but not great year. But this year, due to the recession, Lowery expects less. “If I get a 5 to 10 percent increase, I’ll be happy,” he says. “If I get 10 to 15 percent, I’ll be thrilled.”
Some retailers are expecting even less. “Depending on how everything goes with the economy and the weather, people might be in the mood to buy this year,” says Joyce Holyfield, co-owner of Garden City Pools in Jacksonville, Fla. “But we won’t know until it happens.”

Silver linings?
Not every retailer is heading into 2002 on a cautious note. Bolstered by a stronger-than-normal January and early consumer demand, some aboveground-pool companies believe this year will be a record-setter.

“We have 15 [pools] already sold and it’s not even February,” says Rick Wakefield, president of Way Cool Pools, a retailer in Whitehall, Mich. “I think last year, we sold about 40 all year. We think we are going to have a really good season.”

Randy Lanier, operations manager at retailer Tropical Pools in Goldsboro, N.C., concurs. “I think the aboveground [pool market] is heading for some good times,” he says. “We received so many inquiries in January, everything indicates a banner year and a comeback for the industry.”

Juan Martinez agrees. “There’s been talk of people buying less pools because of the tighter economy, but I haven’t seen it. If people can afford it, they’ll buy it,” says the designer of the Web site Fremontpool.com.

Banking on ‘backyard life’
Of course, that will depend greatly on how much time people want to spend in their backyards this season, and how much they are willing to spend on recreational products in general, say retailers.

Some economists think increased unemployment and rising personal debt could hamper consumer spending.

But they also say increased difficulty — and reluctance — to travel due to the recent terrorist attacks has turned some people away from spending on elaborate vacations. Instead, those consumers are looking to their backyards for recreation.

“The entire nation is turning to more of a stay-at-home philosophy,” says John Silvas, president of PC Pools in Libertyville, Ill. “They’re more apt to take some of their disposable income and spend it at home.”

Aboveground-pool retailers hope to seize upon this newly charged “fun at home” feeling as the 2002 season kicks off. Some store owners say they’re upping the ante on promotions that stress how aboveground pools help make the backyard a place of enjoyment.

Pamper Ma
But as always, the success of those campaigns — and sales in general — will depend a lot on old Mother Nature. Retailers in the Northeast and Midwest say a wet spring shortened the aboveground-pool buying season last year and, in some cases, turned consumers off.

“We had 28 days of rain in May,” says Steve Bishop, president of Pools & Spas A Go-Go in Detroit. “We had a nice, hot summer, which made up for things on the chemical sales end. But once you get into June or July, it’s almost too late. Some people decide to just wait until next year.”

While no one controls the weather, everyone remains optimistic, according to Mark Rusinko, director of merchandising at In The Swim Discount Products in west Chicago. “If Mother Nature comes out and plays,” he says, “we’ll all be singing a happy tune.”